The Council for Geoscience (CGS) would like to bring to the awareness of the public, alleged
earthquake probability forecasting statements that were published by an online media outlet,
“Earthquake News Everyday” between 3 and 5 December 2024. These statements ought to be
approached with caution due to the use of determination methods which are not referenced by reliable
and credible sources.

The statements mention specific magnitudes (6.0 to 8.0) and regions in the areas of the Indian Ocean,
Pacific Ocean, and surrounding countries, including South Africa. While these regions are seismically
active, predicting specific magnitudes and exact locations within a short timeframe (15-20 days) is not
scientifically plausible.

CGS Chief Scientist, Dr Eldridge Kgaswane, explains: “as it stands, scientists cannot predict the exact
time, location, and magnitude of individual earthquakes with high accuracy as claimed in those articles.
Earthquake forecasting, which estimates the probability of earthquakes occurring in a region over a
period of time, is possible, but it is not precise”.

The prediction of a strong earthquake (6.5-8.0 magnitude) within a specific time frame (December 5-20,
2024) is unsubstantiated and not based on any scientifically recognised earthquake forecasting
method.

The statements use overly broad language, mentioning multiple countries and regions without
providing specific details or evidence.
Dr Kgaswane further adds: “the possibility of underwater volcanic eruptions is also mentioned, and
while underwater volcanic activity could occur, predicting such events with precision is also
challenging”.

Lastly, the statements further indicate that the prediction claims being made are based on “4550+
earthquakes & Tsunami observations around the world”, however, it does not cite the sources of these

observations and therefore, lacks scientific credibility. “A scientific claim of any kind must be
substantiated by credible scientific research”, said Kgaswane.

The public is therefore urged to exercise caution and sound judgement when reading, circulating and
sharing such information as it could invoke panic and alarm to those who consume it. Furthermore, the
public is also encouraged to fact-check information related to seismic activities with the CGS as it is the
authority mandated to study, observe and record seismic activities in the country.
The Council for Geoscience is a national science council established in terms of the Geoscience Act
(Act No. 100 of 1993), as amended, to operate and maintain the South African National Seismograph
Network (SANSN) with a primary aim to monitor seismic events across the country and beyond. The
information obtained from the stations is quintessential to advise society and guide future infrastructure
development.

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